Can you really make money on prediction markets? An honest answer
Some people do. Most beginners don't. What an edge really looks like, and how to learn without losing much.
Short answer: Yes, it's possible, but it isn't easy and most beginners lose money at first. Prices are set by many people with money at stake, so to profit over time you need to be right more often than the market, after fees and spreads. Treat it as a skill you learn with small amounts, not as income.
Why it's hard
- The price already includes what everyone knows. Beating it means knowing something others don't, or judging it better.
- Costs add up. Fees and spreads mean a trade that's "a little bit good" can still lose money.
- Professionals trade too. Market makers and experienced traders are on the other side of many orders.
What an edge can look like
- Specialist knowledge. You know local politics, a niche sport or weather data better than most traders.
- Speed. You react to official data (jobs reports, injury news) faster, which is hard, since professionals use automation.
- Better calibration. You're honest about probabilities and don't overrate your favourite team.
- Price shopping. The same event can trade at different prices on different platforms. See how prices work.
Low-risk ways to start
- Use sign-up offers such as Trade $25, get $25 on Kalshi (code
WINPREDITCS) to learn with less of your own money. See all promo codes. - Trade tiny sizes, like $1 to $5, for your first month.
- Keep a journal: why you bought, at what price, what happened.
- Set a monthly budget you're fine losing, and stick to it. See responsible trading.
Frequently asked questions
Do most people lose money on prediction markets?
Most beginners lose small amounts at first, largely to fees, spreads and overconfidence. Because it's traders against traders, one person's profit is another's loss.
Is arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket possible?
Price differences between platforms do appear, but fees, settlement-rule differences and transfer times often make them smaller than they look. Always compare the exact rules of both markets.
How much can you make?
There's no typical number, and anyone promising one is selling something. Start small and track your own results.
