How to read prediction market odds (prices) in 5 minutes
A price of 65¢ means about a 65% chance. Here's how to read prices, work out payouts and convert to sportsbook odds.
Short answer: A prediction market price is the market's estimated probability. A Yes contract at 65¢ means about a 65% chance. If you're right it pays $1, so your profit per contract is $1 minus the price: 35¢ at 65¢. The lower the price, the bigger the payout, and the less likely it is to happen.
On this page
Price = probability
| Price | Implied chance | You pay | You get back if right | Profit per contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 10% | $0.10 | $1.00 | $0.90 |
| 25¢ | 25% | $0.25 | $1.00 | $0.75 |
| 50¢ | 50% | $0.50 | $1.00 | $0.50 |
| 75¢ | 75% | $0.75 | $1.00 | $0.25 |
| 90¢ | 90% | $0.90 | $1.00 | $0.10 |
Profits shown before fees.
How to work out your payout
Payout if you win = number of contracts × $1 Cost = number of contracts × price
Example: you spend $20 on Yes at 40¢. That buys 50 contracts. If Yes wins you get $50 back, a $30 profit. If it loses you get $0.
OG offer, checked 27 September 2026
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Buy price vs sell price
Apps show two numbers: the price to buy (the lowest offer) and the price to sell (the highest bid). The gap is the spread. On busy markets it's 1¢; on quiet ones it can be 5¢ or more, and that gap is a hidden cost.
Converting to sportsbook odds
If you're used to American odds:
| Prediction market price | American odds (approx.) | Decimal odds |
|---|---|---|
| 20¢ | +400 | 5.00 |
| 33¢ | +200 | 3.00 |
| 50¢ | +100 (even) | 2.00 |
| 60¢ | −150 | 1.67 |
| 80¢ | −400 | 1.25 |
Formulas (p = price in dollars, e.g. 0.20):
- Decimal odds = 1 ÷ p
- Price under 50¢: American odds = +(1 − p) ÷ p × 100
- Price over 50¢: American odds = −p ÷ (1 − p) × 100
Or skip the maths: use our odds converter.
Novig offer, checked 27 September 2026
Deposit $10, get $25 in trade credits
Promo code: WINPREDICTS
New users only. Restrictions & requirements apply. Not available in all states. 21+. Event contract trading involves risk & is not appropriate for all. Consider if it's appropriate for you in light of financial circumstances. See novig.com/terms for information. Terms apply.
Does a 70¢ price mean it will happen?
No. It means that, across many events priced at 70¢, roughly 7 in 10 happen. Three in ten don't. A price is a forecast, not a promise.
When is a price "good value"?
Only when you believe the true chance is higher than the price (for Yes) or lower (for No), after fees and the spread. If Yes is 40¢ and you honestly think it's 45%, your edge is small and fees can wipe it out. Most beginners should expect to pay for their education at first.
Frequently asked questions
Why do Yes and No add up to more than $1?
The buy prices of Yes and No usually add up to slightly more than $1, for example 52¢ + 50¢. The extra is the spread, the difference between the best buy and sell offers.
What does "¢" mean on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Cents per contract. Each contract settles at $1 or $0, so a 30¢ contract costs 30 cents.
Can prices be 0¢ or 100¢?
Usually prices are shown between 1¢ and 99¢ while trading is open. Once the result is known, contracts settle at $1 or $0.
