Gibraltar's prediction market rules explained simply
The world's first dedicated prediction market licence, in plain English.
Short answer: Gibraltar's Prediction Market Regulations 2026, in force since July 2026 under the Gambling Act 2025, created the world's first licence written specifically for prediction markets. They treat prediction markets as their own category (not betting), require strong anti-manipulation controls, and ban contracts on things like death, terrorism and war.
On this page
What counts as a prediction market?
A system that lets people create, trade or settle contracts whose value depends on whether an event happens. Crucially, the rules say this activity isn't treated as betting, gaming or a lottery just because of those features.
What operators must do
- Hold a licence from Gibraltar's gambling regulator.
- Protect market integrity: systems to detect manipulation and insider trading.
- Manage conflicts of interest.
- Run anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorist-financing checks.
- Give participants clear information about contracts and risks.
What's banned
Contracts linked to criminal activity, death, serious injury, terrorism, war or armed conflict, and any event that can't be settled objectively or is open to manipulation or consumer harm. The regulator can also restrict other contracts.
Who's licensed?
The first operators approved were ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire's Wire Markets (2026).
Why it matters
Gibraltar is home to many large online gaming companies. A clear licence gives prediction markets a legal route into markets outside the US, while much of Europe blocks them.
General information, not legal advice. Source: Yogonet, 14 July 2026.
Frequently asked questions
When did Gibraltar's prediction market rules start?
They came into force in July 2026.
Can I use a Gibraltar-licensed prediction market from the US?
Generally no. US residents should use CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket US.
