Where are prediction markets legal? A world guide (September 2026)
The US regulates them federally, Gibraltar licenses them, Malta is drafting rules, and much of Europe blocks them. Country by country.
Short answer (checked 27 September 2026): Prediction markets are legal and regulated in the US (by the CFTC, with states contesting sports contracts) and, since July 2026, in Gibraltar, which created the world's first dedicated prediction market licence. Malta plans its own framework. Many European countries, including France, Belgium, Poland, Switzerland and Portugal, treat them as unlicensed gambling and block sites like Polymarket.
On this page
United States
Federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Kalshi, Polymarket US, OG and ProphetX operate as CFTC-regulated exchanges. Several states say sports contracts need a state gaming licence; Nevada has so far won in court. Details: Are prediction markets legal in the US?
Gibraltar: the first dedicated licence
Gibraltar's Prediction Market Regulations 2026, made under the Gambling Act 2025, came into force in July 2026. Key points:
- Prediction markets are a separate category, not classed as betting, gaming or lottery.
- Operators need a licence and must run market-integrity and insider-trading controls, conflict-of-interest management and anti-money-laundering checks.
- Banned subjects: contracts on crime, death, serious injury, terrorism, war or armed conflict, or anything that can't be settled objectively.
- The first operators, ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire's Wire Markets, were approved in 2026.
More: Gibraltar's prediction market rules explained.
Malta: rules on the way
In 2026 Malta's government said it's working on a dedicated framework, with a proposal to let the Malta Gaming Authority (MGA) license and supervise prediction market operators. There's no final law yet (checked 27 September 2026). Because many EU gaming companies are based in Malta, this could shape how prediction markets reach Europe.
Europe: mostly blocked for now
| Country | Status (checked 27 September 2026) |
|---|---|
| France | Gambling regulator (ANJ) ordered internet providers to block Polymarket in July 2026 |
| Belgium | Blocked (Gaming Commission), 2025 |
| Poland | Blocked, 2025 |
| Switzerland | Blocked since November 2024 |
| Portugal | Acted in January 2026 |
| Spain | Temporary block in 2026 pending an investigation |
| Netherlands | Regulator treats it as unlicensed gambling |
| Germany, Italy, Greece, Romania, Czech Republic | Restrictions reported |
Sources: Fintelegram, Blockhead, Yogonet.
What this means for you
- Don't use a VPN to get around a block: it breaks platform terms and can get your funds frozen.
- If you're travelling, what you can trade depends on where you physically are.
- Expect more licensed, local options as Gibraltar and Malta's frameworks attract operators.
Frequently asked questions
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
The UK hasn't created a prediction market licence. Access and legality depend on how the Gambling Commission and FCA treat a given product; check the platform's terms for your country.
Which country was first to license prediction markets?
Gibraltar, with its Prediction Market Regulations 2026, the first framework written specifically for prediction markets.
Is Malta legalising prediction markets?
Malta is drafting a framework that would let the Malta Gaming Authority license prediction market operators. It isn't law yet (checked 27 September 2026).
