How to trade Fed interest rate decisions on prediction markets
The next Fed meetings are October 27–28 and December 8–9. How rate markets work and how to trade them.
Short answer: Kalshi and other prediction markets list contracts on each Federal Reserve (FOMC) decision, such as "Will the Fed cut rates in October?". Buy Yes or No, and the market settles on the Fed's official statement. The remaining 2026 meetings are October 27–28 and December 8–9 (Federal Reserve). Decisions are announced at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on the second day.
What you can trade
- Cut, hold or hike at a specific meeting
- The size of a move (for example 25 vs 50 basis points)
- Where rates end the year
- Related data: inflation (CPI), jobs reports, GDP
Step by step
- Open Kalshi and search "Fed".
- Choose the meeting and read the rules (it settles on the target range in the official FOMC statement).
- Compare the price with your view. Futures markets and economists' forecasts are useful reference points.
- Place a limit order and size small.
Kalshi offer, checked 27 September 2026
Trade $25, get $25
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Terms apply.
Tips
- Rate markets are efficient. Professionals trade the same question in interest-rate futures. Prices near the meeting usually reflect all public information.
- Watch the data calendar. CPI and jobs reports before a meeting move prices most.
- The December meeting comes with new economic projections (the "dot plot"), so markets on 2027 rates move too.
Read next: How to trade CPI and jobs reports: the data that moves Fed markets.
Frequently asked questions
When is the next Fed meeting?
October 27–28, 2026, then December 8–9, 2026. The decision is published at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day.
Where can I trade Fed decisions?
Kalshi has the widest range of Fed and economic markets. Polymarket also lists major Fed decisions.
