How to place your first prediction market trade
Choosing a market, reading the rules, placing a limit order and knowing when to sell.
Short answer: Choose a market you understand, read its rules, decide on a small amount, then buy Yes or No with a limit order at the price you're willing to pay. Watch your position, and remember you can sell before the result. Start with $5 or less.
On this page
1. Pick a market you understand
Start with something you follow: your team's next game, next month's jobs report, tomorrow's temperature in your city. Avoid thin markets with few trades.
2. Read the rules
Tap Rules (or "Market details"). Check:
- The exact question (for example "at or above 75°F" vs "above 75°F")
- The source that decides it
- When it closes, and what happens if the event is postponed
3. Decide your price and size
Look at the current Yes price. Ask yourself: "Do I think the real chance is higher than this?" If yes, buy Yes. If lower, buy No. Size small: your first 10 trades are for learning.
4. Place a limit order
- Tap Yes or No.
- Switch to Limit (sometimes under "Advanced").
- Enter your price, for example 42¢, and the number of contracts or dollar amount.
- Check the cost, fee and potential payout on the confirmation screen.
- Confirm.
5. Manage the trade
Your contracts appear under Portfolio or Positions. You can sell anytime there's a buyer. Decide in advance: "If it hits 70¢ I'll take profit" or "If news turns against me I'll sell."
6. After the result
Winning contracts pay $1 each into your balance, usually within minutes to hours of the official result. Then you can trade again or withdraw. See how to withdraw from Kalshi.
Read next: How are prediction markets settled? and limit orders vs market orders.
Frequently asked questions
How much should my first trade be?
As little as the app allows, often a few dollars. The goal is to learn how the app and prices behave.
What if my limit order doesn't fill?
It waits in the order book until someone matches it, or until you cancel it. You can move your price closer to the market to get filled.
