How to trade CPI inflation and jobs reports on prediction markets

What are CPI and the jobs report?

CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures how prices paid by US households change. The BLS publishes it once a month. Two numbers get the most attention:

• Headline CPI: all items, including food and energy.
• Core CPI: everything except food and energy, which are volatile. The Fed watches core closely.

Each is reported as a monthly change (for example +0.3%) and a 12-month (year-over-year) change (for example 2.9%).

The jobs report, officially the Employment Situation, also comes from the BLS, usually on the first Friday of the month. The two big numbers are:

• Nonfarm payrolls: how many jobs the economy added or lost that month.
• Unemployment rate: the share of people looking for work who can't find it.

Both reports move stocks, bonds and Fed rate expectations, which is why prediction markets list them.

How are the markets structured?

Kalshi lists each release as a ladder of Yes/No contracts, one for each threshold. For a CPI report you might see:

Contract	What Yes means
CPI above 0.1%	Monthly change is more than 0.1%
CPI above 0.2%	Monthly change is more than 0.2%
CPI above 0.3%	Monthly change is more than 0.3%
CPI above 0.4%	Monthly change is more than 0.4%

There are usually separate markets for headline CPI, core CPI and the year-over-year rate. Jobs markets work the same way, with thresholds for payrolls (for example "above 50,000 jobs") and for the unemployment rate (for example "above 4.3%").

The price of each contract, from 1¢ to 99¢, is roughly the market's estimate of the chance. If "CPI above 0.3%" trades at 35¢, traders put the odds near 35%. New to reading prices? See how to read prediction market odds.

How do they settle?

The source is the official BLS release. Points to check in each market's rules before you trade:

1. Which series. Core CPI markets typically use the seasonally adjusted monthly figure, not the unadjusted one.
2. Which number. Monthly change and year-over-year are different markets. Don't mix them up.
3. Rounding. BLS reports CPI to one decimal place. If the release shows exactly 0.3%, "above 0.3%" resolves No.
4. First release vs revisions. Payroll numbers are revised in later months. The rules say which figure counts; normally it's the one in that month's report.

Because the number is public and time-stamped, these markets usually settle within minutes of 8:30 a.m. ET.

When are the next releases? (checked 27 September 2026)

All at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, from the BLS schedules for CPI and the Employment Situation.

Date	Report	Data for
Fri 2 October 2026	Jobs report	September
Wed 14 October 2026	CPI	September
Fri 6 November 2026	Jobs report	October
Tue 10 November 2026	CPI	October
Fri 4 December 2026	Jobs report	November
Thu 10 December 2026	CPI	November

How they line up with the Fed: the October jobs and CPI reports both come before the 27–28 October FOMC meeting. In December, the jobs report lands before the 8–9 December meeting, but CPI is released the day after the decision.

Could a government shutdown delay them?

It has happened. The long 2025 shutdown delayed several BLS reports and disrupted the CPI schedule, and markets had to wait. For now, Congress passed a stopgap funding bill in September 2026 that keeps the government open through 11 December 2026 (Breaking Defense). That covers every date above. The next funding deadline falls the day after the December CPI release, so watch for news on January data. If a release is delayed, the market's rules explain what happens, usually a later settlement date.

Step by step: your first CPI or jobs trade

1. Open Kalshi (sign-up guide) and search "CPI", "inflation", "jobs" or "unemployment".
2. Pick the release you want and the right market (headline or core, monthly or yearly, payrolls or unemployment).
3. Read the rules: settlement source, series and rounding.
4. Form a view. Look at the economists' consensus forecast, published widely in the days before. Last month's figure and trends in gas prices matter for headline CPI.
5. Place a limit order at a price you're happy with. Start small.
6. Wait for 8:30 a.m. ET on release day. Winning contracts pay $1 each.

Not sure how orders work? Start with how to place your first trade.

Tips for trading economic data

• The consensus is already in the price. Professional traders follow the same forecasts. You need a reason to disagree, not just an opinion.
• Payrolls are noisy. Monthly job numbers often miss forecasts by tens of thousands and get revised later. Wide ranges are safer than narrow ones.
• CPI moves in tenths. The gap between 0.2% and 0.3% can come down to rounding, so contracts near the consensus are close to coin flips.
• Gas prices lead headline CPI. A sharp move in gasoline during the month usually shows up in the headline number, less so in core.
• Liquidity thins at extremes. Far-out thresholds can have wide spreads. Check the order book before you buy.
• Mind the fees. Kalshi's fee is highest near 50¢. See prediction market fees explained.
• Don't trade at 8:29. Prices can jump and orders may not fill at the price you want right before a release.

Trading economic data is a way to put a price on your view, not a way to guarantee income. Size small and read our strategies for beginners.

Frequently asked questions

When is the next CPI report?

The September 2026 CPI is released on 14 October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, then 10 November and 10 December 2026.

When is the next jobs report?

The September 2026 jobs report comes out on Friday 2 October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by 6 November and 4 December 2026.

What source do CPI and jobs markets settle on?

The official Bureau of Labor Statistics releases. Each market's rules say which series (for example seasonally adjusted core CPI) and which release counts.

Do payroll revisions change my result?

Normally not. Markets usually settle on the figure in that month's report, and later revisions don't reopen them. Check the rules of your market.

Can I trade CPI on Polymarket?

Polymarket lists some economic markets, but Kalshi has the widest range of CPI and jobs contracts in the US.