Are prediction markets legal in the US? (Updated September 2026)
Federally regulated, but fought over by states. The current legal picture in plain English, checked and dated.
Short answer (checked 27 September 2026): Yes, in most of the US. Kalshi, Polymarket's US app, OG and ProphetX are regulated by the CFTC, the federal futures regulator, and are open in most states. But several states say sports contracts are illegal gambling and are fighting them in court. Nevada is the clearest example. Availability can change quickly, so the app itself is the final word on what you can trade where you are.
On this page
Why they're legal: the CFTC
Prediction markets like Kalshi are registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as designated contract markets (DCMs), the same category as futures exchanges. Their contracts are "event contracts". Because federal law governs futures exchanges, these platforms argue that state gambling laws don't apply to them.
Why states disagree
State gaming regulators say a contract on who wins a football game is a sports bet, whatever it's called, and should need a state gaming license. Many states have sent cease-and-desist letters or gone to court.
Nevada: on 28 August 2026, a three-judge panel of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled unanimously against Kalshi. It upheld a lower-court order that lifted Kalshi's protection from Nevada regulators, finding that Kalshi's sports contracts are likely not "swaps" under federal law, so Nevada can apply its gaming rules. Kalshi asked for a rehearing by the full court on 9 September 2026. (9th Circuit opinion, Covers)
Other states, including Montana, have fought and in some cases settled. Courts in different parts of the country have reached different answers, which is why many expect the question to end up at the US Supreme Court.
What this means for you
- Non-sports markets (economics, weather, culture) are the least controversial.
- Sports contracts are where state fights are happening. An app may switch them off in your state with little notice.
- The app checks your location. If a market isn't allowed where you are, you won't be able to trade it.
- Travelling? What you can trade depends on where you physically are, not where you live.
Platform by platform
| Platform | Model | Where (checked 27 September 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | CFTC-regulated exchange | Most states; not Nevada; check the app |
| Polymarket US | CFTC-regulated (US iPhone app) | Most states; check the app |
| OG | CFTC-regulated event contracts | Around 40 states; check the app |
| ProphetX | CFTC-licensed exchange (sports) | Most states; check the app |
| Novig | CFTC-regulated sports exchange (since August 2026) | 47 states plus DC; not Nevada, Arizona or Michigan; 21+ |
| Rebet | Social sweepstakes sports app | Selected states; not California |
What about outside the US?
Polymarket's international site is blocked in several countries, while Gibraltar became the first place with a dedicated prediction market licence in 2026. See prediction markets around the world.
This page is general information, not legal advice.
Read next: Prediction markets by state: where each app works and which states are in court.
Frequently asked questions
Is Kalshi legal in my state?
Kalshi is available in most US states. It isn't available in Nevada after court rulings there, and sports markets are contested in several other states. Open the app where you are to see what's available.
Is Polymarket legal in the US?
Yes, through its CFTC-regulated US app, which is currently on iPhone. Polymarket's international site is not for US users.
Why are prediction markets legal in states without sports betting?
Because CFTC-regulated exchanges operate under federal commodities law, not state gambling law. States are challenging that for sports contracts, so it may change.
Will prediction markets be banned?
A nationwide ban is unlikely because the CFTC regulates them, but individual states may win the right to block sports contracts. We update this page as rulings come in.
