How to trade the 2026 midterm elections on prediction markets
Control of the House and Senate, every race, and more. How midterm markets work and how to trade them, step by step.
Short answer: In the US you can legally trade the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket (iPhone). Pick a market such as "Which party will win the Senate?", buy Yes or No on the outcome you think is underpriced, and you're paid $1 per contract if you're right. As of 26 September 2026, averaged market prices gave Democrats about a 62% chance of winning the Senate and 92% for the House (Covers).
On this page
Why these midterms are different
CNN has called 2026 "the first prediction-market election": Kalshi and Polymarket have markets on essentially every House and Senate race, and election markets had traded more than $750 million by late September (CNN). Republicans went into the election holding majorities in both chambers.
Which midterm markets can you trade?
- Control of the Senate and control of the House
- Balance of power: combinations such as "Democratic House, Republican Senate"
- Individual races: every Senate race and most House races
- Margins and seat counts: how many seats a party wins
- Governor races and some ballot measures
Step by step
- Open an account on Kalshi (web, iPhone, Android) or Polymarket (iPhone). Use code
WINPREDITCSon Kalshi for Trade $25, get $25, orWINon Polymarket for Deposit $10, get a $50 trading bonus. - Search "Senate" or "House", or the name of your state.
- Read the rules. Election markets settle on a named source, often official certification or major-outlet calls, and some wait for recounts. Check the exact wording.
- Compare the price with your own view. If Yes is 62¢, the market says 62%. Only buy if you think the real chance is higher.
- Use a limit order so you don't overpay in fast markets, especially on election night.
- Decide your exit. You can sell before November 3 if the price moves your way.
Kalshi offer, checked 27 September 2026
Trade $25, get $25
Promo code: WINPREDITCS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Terms apply.
Tips for election markets
- Big markets are efficient. Control-of-Congress markets are heavily traded; beating them is hard. Local races are thinner, and local knowledge can matter more there, but wide spreads eat into any edge.
- Election night is volatile. Prices can swing 30¢ or more as counties report. Don't trade on partial results you don't understand.
- Polls vs markets: markets react faster to news; polls measure opinion. See are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
- Settlement can take weeks for close races. Your money is tied up until then.
- Your state matters. Election markets are generally less contested than sports markets, but the app confirms what's available where you are.
Frequently asked questions
Is it legal to bet on the midterms?
Trading election event contracts on CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket US is legal in most states. Traditional sportsbooks in the US generally can't take election bets.
What are the odds Democrats win the House in 2026?
As of 26 September 2026, averaged Kalshi and Polymarket prices put Democrats at about 92% to win the House and 62% for the Senate. Prices change daily, so check the live markets.
When do midterm markets pay out?
When the market's official source confirms the result. Clear races can settle on election night or the day after; close races can take weeks.
Can I sell my position before Election Day?
Yes. You can sell at the current market price anytime there's a buyer.
