Prediction market news: what changed in September 2026
Kalshi's Nevada fight, Robinhood's new partners, record election trading and Europe's split. The month in five minutes.
The month in brief
- Kalshi lost a key round in Nevada and asked the full appeals court to rehear the case.
- Robinhood signed a prediction markets deal with Crypto.com and OG, adding to its shift away from Kalshi.
- 2026 midterm markets on Kalshi and Polymarket passed $750 million in trading.
- In Europe, France's July order to block Polymarket stands, while Gibraltar licenses operators and Malta drafts rules.
On this page
Kalshi vs Nevada: a court setback and a rehearing request
On August 28, a three-judge panel of the 9th Circuit ruled unanimously for Nevada. It upheld a lower-court order that lifted Kalshi's protection from state regulators, finding that Kalshi's sports contracts are likely not "swaps" under federal law. On September 9, Kalshi asked the full court to rehear the case. Kalshi remains unavailable in Nevada. (9th Circuit opinion, Covers)
What it means for you: nothing changes outside Nevada for now, but sports contracts remain the legal battleground. See are prediction markets legal?
Robinhood adds Crypto.com and OG
On September 8, Robinhood expanded its prediction markets offering through a deal with Crypto.com and OG (Axios). Earlier in 2026 it began routing some contracts to Rothera, an exchange it owns with Susquehanna, instead of Kalshi (Bloomberg). More in Kalshi vs Robinhood.
The "first prediction-market election"
CNN reported on September 24 that trading on 2026 election markets on Kalshi and Polymarket had passed $750 million, with markets on essentially every House and Senate race (CNN). Averaged prices on September 26 gave Democrats about 92% to win the House and 62% for the Senate (Covers). Guide: how to trade the midterms.
Europe: blocks in the EU, licences in Gibraltar
France's gambling regulator ordered internet providers to block Polymarket in July, joining several European countries that treat prediction markets as unlicensed betting. Gibraltar's dedicated licence came into force the same month, and Malta is drafting its own framework. Details: where are prediction markets legal?
Coming up in October
| Date | Event | Guide |
|---|---|---|
| October 20 | NBA season opens | Trade the NBA |
| October 23 | World Series begins | Trade the World Series |
| October 27–28 | Fed meeting | Trade Fed decisions |
| November 3 | Midterm elections | Trade the midterms |
Frequently asked questions
Is Kalshi still available in Nevada?
No. After the court rulings, Kalshi isn't available in Nevada (checked 27 September 2026). It asked the full 9th Circuit to rehear the case on September 9, 2026.
What is the biggest prediction market story of 2026?
The midterm elections: election markets on Kalshi and Polymarket passed $750 million in trading by late September, and the legal fight between Kalshi and states like Nevada over sports contracts continues.
